Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

232.8 – 270.29

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

353 – 234

Prediction missed · off by 78.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 481.3 ±9.8

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 99.64Rank 6Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9644NEIA Robotics

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 24.9Rank 7Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

20794H ALARM Robotics

Season APEX 180.7Event APEX 108.26Rank 11Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 377.3 ±10.4

11483Red Line Robotics

Season APEX 110.8Event APEX 31.45Rank 21Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1119Pup Cups

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 85.6Rank 24Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 153.24Rank 5Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8013, 9644, 2079

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.8 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8013, 9644, 2079

Auto

54.2 23%

Teleop

137.7 59%

Endgame

41.7 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11483, 1119, 1153

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.3 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11483, 1119, 1153

Auto

37.0 14%

Teleop

169.8 63%

Endgame

61.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score232.8pts

Blue projected score270.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample82alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -37.5
Score range: 178–325
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 587 vs event baseline 306.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

481.3Season APEX377.3

54.2Auto37

137.7Teleop169.8

41.7Endgame61.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	42
teleop	196	122
endgame	67	70
foul	0	0
total	353	234

Result

Final score

353 – 234

Prediction missed · off by 78.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree