Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

347.23 – 223.56

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

407 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 41.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.7 ±9.4

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 121.51Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 99.83Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 125.89Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.3 ±12.2

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 52.99Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 45.71Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 124.86Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8013, 3323, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

347.2 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8013, 3323, 4909

Auto

50.6 16%

Teleop

179.2 55%

Endgame

96.4 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2084, 1277, 1153

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2084, 1277, 1153

Auto

36.8 17%

Teleop

116.9 54%

Endgame

61.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.41 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score347.2pts

Blue projected score223.6pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 123.7
Score range: 181–390
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 608 vs event baseline 237.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.7Season APEX321.3

50.6Auto36.8

179.2Teleop116.9

96.4Endgame61.8

105Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	26
teleop	245	140
endgame	75	35
foul	15	0
total	407	201

Result

Final score

407 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 41.2 pts

Match videos

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