Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

409.37 – 228.1

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

394 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 55.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 618.2 ±10.2

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 61.75Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 158.53Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 189.09Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 484.1 ±10.5

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 16.32Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 78.44Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 133.34Rank 12Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8626, 190, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

409.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8626, 190, 2877

Auto

71.3 18%

Teleop

244.6 60%

Endgame

89.8 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5735, 10973, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5735, 10973, 2713

Auto

52.4 23%

Teleop

125.5 56%

Endgame

47.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score409.4pts

Blue projected score228.1pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 181.3
Score range: 185–452
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 527 vs event baseline 236.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

618.2Season APEX484.1

71.3Auto52.4

244.6Teleop125.5

89.8Endgame47.5

92Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	52
teleop	215	81
endgame	89	0
foul	0	0
total	394	133

Result

Final score

394 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 55.2 pts

Match videos

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