Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.72 – 216.8

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

188 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 15 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.2 ±11.6

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 38.68Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 33.65Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 96.39Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.7 ±11

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 44.28Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 48.1Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 124.42Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4572, 5459, 4311

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4572, 5459, 4311

Auto

41.9 25%

Teleop

88.9 53%

Endgame

36.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2423, 1277, 1153

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2423, 1277, 1153

Auto

47.4 23%

Teleop

121.5 58%

Endgame

39.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.7pts

Blue projected score216.8pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.1
Score range: 127–259
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 394 vs event baseline 233.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.2Season APEX367.7

41.9Auto47.4

88.9Teleop121.5

36.9Endgame39.2

44Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	29
teleop	84	103
endgame	28	59
foul	15	15
total	188	206

Result

Final score

188 – 206

Prediction correct · off by 15 pts

Match videos

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