Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.48 – 232.04

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 69.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.8 ±9.9

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 45.28Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 162.07Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 55.13Rank 22Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.1 ±9.8

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 94.5Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 72.42Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 65.12Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6201, 5813, 6731

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6201, 5813, 6731

Auto

49.5 19%

Teleop

139.1 53%

Endgame

73.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 131, 8709, 501

/ 100 compat

Projected

232 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 131, 8709, 501

Auto

42.4 18%

Teleop

144.0 63%

Endgame

42.8 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score262.5pts

Blue projected score232pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 79%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.4
Score range: 190–304
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 234.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.8Season APEX483.1

49.5Auto42.4

139.1Teleop144

73.6Endgame42.8

68Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	60
teleop	99	36
endgame	35	52
foul	0	0
total	207	148

Result

Final score

207 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 69.8 pts

Match videos

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