Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

203.87 – 243.43

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

323 – 111

Prediction missed · off by 125.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 484.1 ±10.5

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 8.5Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 71.02Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 124.35Rank 12Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.7 ±11

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 52.25Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 56.86Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 134.32Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5735, 10973, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5735, 10973, 2713

Auto

44.4 22%

Teleop

109.3 54%

Endgame

47.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2423, 1277, 1153

/ 100 compat

Projected

243.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2423, 1277, 1153

Auto

53.2 23%

Teleop

134.3 57%

Endgame

47.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.9pts

Blue projected score243.4pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.6
Score range: 162–285
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 434 vs event baseline 234.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

484.1Season APEX367.7

44.4Auto53.2

109.3Teleop134.3

47.7Endgame47.6

24Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	24
teleop	182	73
endgame	53	4
foul	5	10
total	323	111

Result

Final score

323 – 111

Prediction missed · off by 125.8 pts

Match videos

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