Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

424.48 – 171.96

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

333 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 626.2 ±8.8

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 66.07Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 162.6Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 195.81Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.2 ±11.6

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 38.76Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 35.66Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 97.54Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 151, 190, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

424.5 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 151, 190, 2877

Auto

73.5 17%

Teleop

240.3 57%

Endgame

107.2 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4572, 5459, 4311

/ 100 compat

Projected

172 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4572, 5459, 4311

Auto

43.9 26%

Teleop

96.0 56%

Endgame

32.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.7 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score424.5pts

Blue projected score172pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 252.5
Score range: 130–466
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 476 vs event baseline 234.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

626.2Season APEX338.2

73.5Auto43.9

240.3Teleop96

107.2Endgame32.1

74Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	35
teleop	174	50
endgame	92	53
foul	0	5
total	333	143

Result

Final score

333 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 60.2 pts

Match videos

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