Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

325.62 – 215.77

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

349 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.7 ±9.4

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 112.93Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 94.37Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 118.32Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 483.1 ±9.8

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 88.59Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 65.88Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 61.3Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8013, 3323, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

325.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8013, 3323, 4909

Auto

55.7 18%

Teleop

168.9 54%

Endgame

88.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 131, 8709, 501

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 131, 8709, 501

Auto

38.4 18%

Teleop

137.3 65%

Endgame

35.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score325.6pts

Blue projected score215.8pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 79%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 109.9
Score range: 174–368
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 233.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.7Season APEX483.1

55.7Auto38.4

168.9Teleop137.3

88.1Endgame35.7

134Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	60
teleop	182	170
endgame	66	70
foul	50	0
total	349	300

Result

Final score

349 – 300

Prediction correct · off by 53.8 pts

Match videos

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