Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

254.49 – 355.58

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

264 – 362

Prediction correct · off by 8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 521.8 ±9.9

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 41.81Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 158.11Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 54.57Rank 22Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 408.7 ±9.4

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 124.43Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 102.39Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 128.76Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6201, 5813, 6731

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6201, 5813, 6731

Auto

57.8 23%

Teleop

129.7 51%

Endgame

66.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8013, 3323, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

355.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8013, 3323, 4909

Auto

53.7 16%

Teleop

189.0 56%

Endgame

92.7 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score254.5pts

Blue projected score355.6pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -101.1
Score range: 211–399
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 626 vs event baseline 240.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

521.8Season APEX408.7

57.8Auto53.7

129.7Teleop189

66.2Endgame92.7

83Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	76
teleop	127	164
endgame	72	97
foul	20	25
total	264	362

Result

Final score

264 – 362

Prediction correct · off by 8 pts

Match videos

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