Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

211.14 – 252.22

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

187 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 484.1 ±10.5

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 10.61Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 72.76Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 127.77Rank 12Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 521.8 ±9.9

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 41.31Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 157.38Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 53.53Rank 22Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5735, 10973, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5735, 10973, 2713

Auto

52.3 25%

Teleop

116.8 56%

Endgame

39.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6201, 5813, 6731

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6201, 5813, 6731

Auto

53.2 21%

Teleop

131.5 52%

Endgame

67.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score211.1pts

Blue projected score252.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.1
Score range: 168–295
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 456 vs event baseline 238.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

484.1Season APEX521.8

52.3Auto53.2

116.8Teleop131.5

39.7Endgame67.3

24Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	84
teleop	79	115
endgame	88	65
foul	5	5
total	187	269

Result

Final score

187 – 269

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Match videos

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