Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.88 – 175.77

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

505 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 219.4 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 641.6 ±9.4

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 40.79Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 94Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 69.09Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.9 ±11.7

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 62.91Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 40.86Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 72Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1153, 125, 10973

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1153, 125, 10973

Auto

47.9 26%

Teleop

90.5 49%

Endgame

47.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5735, 9729, 6201

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5735, 9729, 6201

Auto

22.7 13%

Teleop

93.2 54%

Endgame

56.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.9pts

Blue projected score175.8pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.1
Score range: 138–242
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 543 vs event baseline 208.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

641.6Season APEX284.9

47.9Auto22.7

90.5Teleop93.2

47.9Endgame56.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	113	15
teleop	294	21
endgame	98	2
foul	0	0
total	505	38

Result

Final score

505 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 219.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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