Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.71 – 139.54

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

272 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 91.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 432.7 ±12.4

5563Phalanx

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 27.21Rank 37Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 77.43Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 80.07Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 458.1 ±10.5

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 30.26Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 82.07Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 27.21Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5563, 2084, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5563, 2084, 5813

Auto

34.0 19%

Teleop

88.9 51%

Endgame

51.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2876, 131, 1277

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2876, 131, 1277

Auto

10.5 8%

Teleop

94.3 68%

Endgame

32.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score184.7pts

Blue projected score139.5pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.2
Score range: 101–224
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 316 vs event baseline 215.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

432.7Season APEX458.1

34Auto10.5

88.9Teleop94.3

51.6Endgame32.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	6
teleop	152	17
endgame	89	21
foul	0	0
total	272	44

Result

Final score

272 – 44

Prediction correct · off by 91.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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