Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

369.23 – 236.57

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

399 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 43.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 585.8 ±9.4

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 41.21Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 67.19Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 260.83Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.6 ±11.7

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 150.67Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 57.62Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 28.28Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5962, 151, 125

/ 100 compat

Projected

369.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5962, 151, 125

Auto

88.6 24%

Teleop

192.2 52%

Endgame

87.3 24%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5813, 8626, 8023

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5813, 8626, 8023

Auto

50.7 22%

Teleop

131.3 57%

Endgame

48.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.54 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score369.2pts

Blue projected score236.6pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 132.7
Score range: 196–410
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 692 vs event baseline 228.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

585.8Season APEX436.6

88.6Auto50.7

192.2Teleop131.3

87.3Endgame48.1

96Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	50
teleop	227	146
endgame	79	92
foul	0	5
total	399	293

Result

Final score

399 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 43.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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