Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.58 – 145.39

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

138 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 4.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.1 ±12.8

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 31.04Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 43.66Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 66.88Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403 ±11.7

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 10.22Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5491Hard Reset

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 46.19Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 88.98Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4048, 9729, 8709

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4048, 9729, 8709

Auto

14.4 12%

Teleop

77.3 63%

Endgame

31.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 81%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5735, 5491, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5735, 5491, 131

Auto

25.4 18%

Teleop

80.9 58%

Endgame

32.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 81%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.6pts

Blue projected score145.4pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 81%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.8
Score range: 101–186
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 229.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.1Season APEX403

14.4Auto25.4

77.3Teleop80.9

31.8Endgame32.8

58Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	53
teleop	104	74
endgame	15	23
foul	0	0
total	138	150

Result

Final score

138 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 4.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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