Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

157.15 – 167.72

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

264 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 86.8 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.1 ±11.2

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX -Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 44.29Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 76Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433 ±11.2

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 72.86Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 74.86Rank 12Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 20Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4311, 1761, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4311, 1761, 2877

Auto

26.2 17%

Teleop

88.1 57%

Endgame

41.4 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3958, 2713, 10156

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3958, 2713, 10156

Auto

23.7 14%

Teleop

104.6 63%

Endgame

38.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score157.2pts

Blue projected score167.7pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.6
Score range: 117–208
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 365 vs event baseline 221.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.1Season APEX433

15.1Auto23.7

69.7Teleop104.6

34Endgame38

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	45
teleop	175	53
endgame	44	3
foul	0	0
total	264	101

Result

Final score

264 – 101

Prediction missed · off by 86.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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