Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.15 – 391.98

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 57

Prediction missed · off by 201.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.4 ±12.2

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 20.09Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 49.97Rank 22Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 78.09Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 630 ±9.9

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 153.85Rank 12Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 176.35Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 61.78Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10156, 6731, 10973

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10156, 6731, 10973

Auto

37.3 25%

Teleop

67.8 45%

Endgame

45.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2713, 88, 5459

/ 100 compat

Projected

392 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2713, 88, 5459

Auto

77.2 19%

Teleop

244.8 61%

Endgame

79.0 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 2.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.2pts

Blue projected score392pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -243.8
Score range: 106–434
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 232.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.4Season APEX630

37.3Auto77.2

67.8Teleop244.8

45.6Endgame79

37Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	44
teleop	48	7
endgame	5	6
foul	5	0
total	81	57

Result

Final score

81 – 57

Prediction missed · off by 201.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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