Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.54 – 88.97

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

170 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.9 ±12.8

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 54.03Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 32.61Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 24.9Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.4 ±11.7

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 36.64Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 29.4Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 22.93Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8626, 2876, 4048

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8626, 2876, 4048

Auto

19.7 19%

Teleop

56.8 53%

Endgame

29.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6201, 8023, 1761

/ 100 compat

Projected

89 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6201, 8023, 1761

Auto

17.9 21%

Teleop

34.2 40%

Endgame

32.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.5pts

Blue projected score89pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.6
Score range: 47–154
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 233.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.9Season APEX299.4

19.7Auto17.9

56.8Teleop34.2

29.8Endgame32.6

48Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	11
teleop	93	42
endgame	41	40
foul	0	0
total	170	93

Result

Final score

170 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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