Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

225.07 – 140.1

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 7.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 479.3 ±11.2

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 85.73Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 42.04Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 97.3Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.6 ±10.4

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 55.31Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 20.05Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 64.74Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 131, 9729, 4311

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 131, 9729, 4311

Auto

34.2 16%

Teleop

128.3 61%

Endgame

48.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 501, 3958, 151

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 501, 3958, 151

Auto

35.0 26%

Teleop

57.9 43%

Endgame

40.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score225.1pts

Blue projected score140.1pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 80%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 85
Score range: 98–267
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 381 vs event baseline 234.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

479.3Season APEX271.6

34.2Auto35

128.3Teleop57.9

48.8Endgame40.9

67Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	16
teleop	144	96
endgame	32	41
foul	0	0
total	228	153

Result

Final score

228 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 7.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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