Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.38 – 398.11

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

196 – 492

Prediction correct · off by 69.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.4 ±12.2

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 18.2Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 127.4Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 5.78Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 598.5 ±9.5

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 156.49Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 187.24Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 54.38Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10156, 1153, 5735

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10156, 1153, 5735

Auto

35.1 23%

Teleop

79.4 52%

Endgame

36.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 190, 2877, 5459

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.1 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 190, 2877, 5459

Auto

75.5 19%

Teleop

239.5 60%

Endgame

81.6 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151.4pts

Blue projected score398.1pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -246.7
Score range: 110–439
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 688 vs event baseline 230.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.4Season APEX598.5

35.1Auto75.5

79.4Teleop239.5

36.9Endgame81.6

15Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	47
teleop	123	319
endgame	50	126
foul	10	0
total	196	492

Result

Final score

196 – 492

Prediction correct · off by 69.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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