Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.89 – 260.04

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.7 ±13.3

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 53.99Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 24.17Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 36.73Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.2 ±10.4

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 57.35Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 121.32Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 81.37Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1277, 1761, 10912

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1277, 1761, 10912

Auto

25.2 24%

Teleop

50.2 48%

Endgame

29.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2423, 8013, 10973

/ 100 compat

Projected

260 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2423, 8013, 10973

Auto

63.9 26%

Teleop

124.6 50%

Endgame

61.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.9pts

Blue projected score260pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -145.2
Score range: 73–302
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 231.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.7Season APEX415.2

25.2Auto63.9

50.2Teleop124.6

29.7Endgame61.9

37Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	44
teleop	59	130
endgame	11	22
foul	15	35
total	109	231

Result

Final score

109 – 231

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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