Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

492.67 – 133.14

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

380 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 66.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 666.5 ±8.8

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 187.07Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 276.72Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 28.88Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375 ±11.7

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 35.99Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 38Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 59.15Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 88, 125, 3958

/ 100 compat

Projected

492.7 pts

~2.9 RP (district)

Teams: 88, 125, 3958

Auto

115.0 24%

Teleop

270.3 56%

Endgame

101.4 21%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4572, 6201, 8626

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4572, 6201, 8626

Auto

33.1 24%

Teleop

71.8 53%

Endgame

30.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.87 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score492.7pts

Blue projected score133.1pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 359.5
Score range: 91–535
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 492 vs event baseline 231.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

666.5Season APEX375

115Auto33.1

270.3Teleop71.8

101.4Endgame30.3

88Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	118	22
teleop	212	56
endgame	45	29
foul	5	5
total	380	112

Result

Final score

380 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 66.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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