Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.13 – 144.78

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

205 – 240

Prediction missed · off by 58.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.7 ±12.2

5491Hard Reset

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 40.97Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 56.17Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 128.99Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 358.9 ±11.7

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 36.62Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 52.64Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 55.52Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5491, 5459, 1153

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5491, 5459, 1153

Auto

40.6 18%

Teleop

132.2 59%

Endgame

51.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2084, 8709, 151

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2084, 8709, 151

Auto

44.0 33%

Teleop

54.5 40%

Endgame

36.6 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score226.1pts

Blue projected score144.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.4
Score range: 103–268
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 445 vs event baseline 231.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.7Season APEX358.9

40.6Auto44

132.2Teleop54.5

51.9Endgame36.6

16Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	27
teleop	138	108
endgame	36	100
foul	0	5
total	205	240

Result

Final score

205 – 240

Prediction missed · off by 58.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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