Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

221.31 – 150.26

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

210 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 6.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.6 ±11.4

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 52.09Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 39.13Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 130.09Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.6 ±11.7

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 43.1Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 62.34Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 44.82Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 246, 4572, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 246, 4572, 4909

Auto

47.3 22%

Teleop

103.0 49%

Endgame

61.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2423, 8626, 5962

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2423, 8626, 5962

Auto

42.7 29%

Teleop

83.8 57%

Endgame

19.3 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score221.3pts

Blue projected score150.3pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 80%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.1
Score range: 105–266
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 250.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.6Season APEX381.6

47.3Auto42.7

103Teleop83.8

61.9Endgame19.3

84Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	57
teleop	109	65
endgame	64	27
foul	0	0
total	210	149

Result

Final score

210 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 6.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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