Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.67 – 223.29

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

51 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.7 ±13.9

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 33.98Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 33.78Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 57.91Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.3 ±10

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 2.89Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 92.92Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 127.48Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1761, 4048, 246

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1761, 4048, 246

Auto

19.5 16%

Teleop

57.4 47%

Endgame

44.5 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5735, 4311, 4909

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5735, 4311, 4909

Auto

53.9 26%

Teleop

102.3 49%

Endgame

54.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.7pts

Blue projected score223.3pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.6
Score range: 84–265
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 233.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.7Season APEX366.3

19.5Auto53.9

57.4Teleop102.3

44.5Endgame54.3

35Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	43
teleop	15	154
endgame	0	52
foul	20	0
total	51	249

Result

Final score

51 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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