Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

195.13 – 262.72

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

222 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 553.8 ±9.8

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 83.63Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 35.72Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 75.78Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.9 ±11.7

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 47.41Rank 22Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 182.42Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 32.89Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 131, 5962, 10973

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 131, 5962, 10973

Auto

53.7 28%

Teleop

96.7 50%

Endgame

42.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6731, 2877, 10912

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6731, 2877, 10912

Auto

33.6 13%

Teleop

158.0 61%

Endgame

69.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score195.1pts

Blue projected score262.7pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.6
Score range: 153–305
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 530 vs event baseline 233.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

553.8Season APEX414.9

53.7Auto33.6

96.7Teleop158

42.1Endgame69.1

50Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	68
teleop	111	166
endgame	67	74
foul	5	0
total	222	308

Result

Final score

222 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 36.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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