Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.97 – 125.46

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 202

Prediction missed · off by 71.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 456 ±11.2

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 38.01Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 17.71Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 199.25Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.7 ±12.2

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 49.67Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 28.38Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 47.41Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2876, 10156, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

255 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2876, 10156, 88

Auto

56.3 22%

Teleop

150.8 58%

Endgame

52.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5459, 2084, 2423

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5459, 2084, 2423

Auto

42.9 35%

Teleop

47.2 38%

Endgame

32.9 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.44 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score255pts

Blue projected score125.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.5
Score range: 83–297
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 391 vs event baseline 232.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

456Season APEX318.7

56.3Auto42.9

150.8Teleop47.2

52.5Endgame32.9

50Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	50
teleop	82	109
endgame	62	33
foul	0	10
total	189	202

Result

Final score

189 – 202

Prediction missed · off by 71.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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