Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

242.13 – 216.76

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 75.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 393.1 ±11

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 59.08Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 46.38Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 136.67Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280 ±12.2

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 60.92Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 35.1Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 120.74Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8709, 4572, 1153

/ 100 compat

Projected

242.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8709, 4572, 1153

Auto

39.8 17%

Teleop

150.7 64%

Endgame

44.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 246, 8023, 8013

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 246, 8023, 8013

Auto

39.0 19%

Teleop

106.6 51%

Endgame

63.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.04 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score242.1pts

Blue projected score216.8pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 79%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.4
Score range: 175–284
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 233.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

393.1Season APEX280

39.8Auto39

150.7Teleop106.6

44.9Endgame63.5

41Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	38
teleop	52	97
endgame	24	23
foul	15	5
total	144	163

Result

Final score

144 – 163

Prediction missed · off by 75.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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