Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

234.36 – 256.52

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

221 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 9.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.1 ±10

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 127.63Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 52.32Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 54.41Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 548 ±9.3

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 181.42Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 33.99Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 41.11Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4909, 1277, 151

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 1277, 151

Auto

54.9 25%

Teleop

109.8 50%

Endgame

55.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2877, 5962, 6201

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2877, 5962, 6201

Auto

39.0 15%

Teleop

150.2 58%

Endgame

71.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score234.4pts

Blue projected score256.5pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.2
Score range: 192–299
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 483 vs event baseline 233.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

363.1Season APEX548

54.9Auto39

109.8Teleop150.2

55.5Endgame71.1

84Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	51
teleop	71	153
endgame	106	53
foul	0	5
total	221	262

Result

Final score

221 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 9.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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