Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

305.52 – 168.19

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

314 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 635.6 ±10.2

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 60.07Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 83.66Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 161.79Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.8 ±12.8

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 83.04Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 36.81Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5491Hard Reset

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 48.34Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8626, 131, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8626, 131, 190

Auto

78.2 26%

Teleop

169.6 56%

Endgame

56.0 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10973, 10912, 5491

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10973, 10912, 5491

Auto

35.5 23%

Teleop

74.6 48%

Endgame

44.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.51 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score305.5pts

Blue projected score168.2pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.3
Score range: 126–348
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 234.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

635.6Season APEX306.8

78.2Auto35.5

169.6Teleop74.6

56Endgame44.4

113Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	25
teleop	215	42
endgame	58	28
foul	5	0
total	314	95

Result

Final score

314 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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