Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

193.4 – 267.54

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

311 – 311

Prediction missed · off by 80.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 440.9 ±11.7

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 19Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 37.63Rank 22Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 136.77Rank 12Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.2 ±11.2

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 28.25Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 90.81Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 148.48Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1761, 6731, 2713

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1761, 6731, 2713

Auto

38.5 19%

Teleop

116.2 59%

Endgame

43.5 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4048, 4311, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4048, 4311, 5813

Auto

44.0 17%

Teleop

143.2 56%

Endgame

70.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score193.4pts

Blue projected score267.5pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.1
Score range: 151–310
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 622 vs event baseline 232.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

440.9Season APEX520.2

38.5Auto44

116.2Teleop143.2

43.5Endgame70.7

92Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	51
teleop	173	181
endgame	112	54
foul	0	25
total	311	311

Result

Final score

311 – 311

Prediction missed · off by 80.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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