Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

179.18 – 262.96

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

143 – 369

Prediction correct · off by 71.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281.8 ±12.2

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 41.6Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 34.1Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 103.48Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.5 ±11.2

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 35.02Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 65.78Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 162.16Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9729, 5459, 3323

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9729, 5459, 3323

Auto

19.1 11%

Teleop

102.7 60%

Endgame

49.8 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10912, 8709, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

263 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10912, 8709, 88

Auto

66.6 26%

Teleop

144.3 56%

Endgame

45.9 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 76%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179.2pts

Blue projected score263pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 76%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -83.8
Score range: 134–308
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 250.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281.8Season APEX479.5

19.1Auto66.6

102.7Teleop144.3

49.8Endgame45.9

85Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	76
teleop	76	246
endgame	45	47
foul	0	0
total	143	369

Result

Final score

143 – 369

Prediction correct · off by 71.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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