Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.65 – 366.06

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

309 – 449

Prediction correct · off by 116.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 281 ±11

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 107.44Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 17.6Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 34.61Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 575.1 ±10.8

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 263.63Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 52.01Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 50.42Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8013, 3958, 1277

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8013, 3958, 1277

Auto

36.7 24%

Teleop

82.2 54%

Endgame

33.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 125, 246, 8709

/ 100 compat

Projected

366.1 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 125, 246, 8709

Auto

88.9 25%

Teleop

200.3 56%

Endgame

67.4 19%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.92 · Blue 2.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.6pts

Blue projected score366.1pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -206.4
Score range: 119–407
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 758 vs event baseline 229.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

281Season APEX575.1

36.7Auto88.9

82.2Teleop200.3

33.8Endgame67.4

88Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	92
teleop	137	260
endgame	91	97
foul	20	0
total	309	449

Result

Final score

309 – 449

Prediction correct · off by 116.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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