Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

151.37 – 125.74

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 508.8 ±10.7

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 33.34Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 35.23Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 82.8Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.5 ±12.2

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 48.8Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 40.25Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 36.69Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10912, 6201, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10912, 6201, 131

Auto

22.5 15%

Teleop

86.6 57%

Endgame

42.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2876, 8023, 2084

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2876, 8023, 2084

Auto

21.7 18%

Teleop

53.5 43%

Endgame

48.0 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151.4pts

Blue projected score125.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.6
Score range: 84–193
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 231.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

508.8Season APEX253.5

22.5Auto21.7

86.6Teleop53.5

42Endgame48

36Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	21
teleop	87	18
endgame	47	29
foul	15	15
total	196	83

Result

Final score

196 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 43.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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