Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

234.26 – 327.78

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

326 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 111 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468.4 ±11.2

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 145.16Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 48.15Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5491Hard Reset

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 40.95Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 578.5 ±9.8

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 129.52Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 123.59Rank 12Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 74.67Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5813, 151, 5491

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5813, 151, 5491

Auto

44.7 20%

Teleop

121.4 54%

Endgame

56.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1153, 2713, 4311

/ 100 compat

Projected

327.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1153, 2713, 4311

Auto

57.1 17%

Teleop

201.3 61%

Endgame

70.7 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score234.3pts

Blue projected score327.8pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -93.5
Score range: 193–369
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 784 vs event baseline 227.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468.4Season APEX578.5

44.7Auto57.1

121.4Teleop201.3

56.7Endgame70.7

48Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	85
teleop	157	283
endgame	88	85
foul	20	5
total	326	458

Result

Final score

326 – 458

Prediction correct · off by 111 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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