Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

269.04 – 194.23

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

302 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 49.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 452.6 ±12.4

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 23.91Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 183.42Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 61.71Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302 ±12

5563Phalanx

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 32.16Rank 37Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 118.2Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 43.87Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10156, 2877, 8626

/ 100 compat

Projected

269 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10156, 2877, 8626

Auto

39.8 15%

Teleop

165.3 62%

Endgame

63.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5563, 4909, 9729

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5563, 4909, 9729

Auto

26.7 14%

Teleop

99.7 53%

Endgame

62.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.24 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score269pts

Blue projected score194.2pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.8
Score range: 153–310
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 563 vs event baseline 226.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

452.6Season APEX302

39.8Auto26.7

165.3Teleop99.7

63.4Endgame62.9

48Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	35
teleop	189	104
endgame	55	72
foul	0	50
total	302	261

Result

Final score

302 – 261

Prediction correct · off by 49.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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