Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

143.16 – 212.79

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 79.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.2 ±12.2

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 53.65Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 43.32Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 46.19Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.1 ±11.7

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 32.46Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 83.29Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 97.04Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8023, 4048, 5962

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8023, 4048, 5962

Auto

20.9 15%

Teleop

63.4 45%

Endgame

56.1 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1761, 10973, 3323

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1761, 10973, 3323

Auto

52.2 26%

Teleop

84.9 42%

Endgame

62.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.2pts

Blue projected score212.8pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -69.6
Score range: 101–255
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 231.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.2Season APEX356.1

20.9Auto52.2

63.4Teleop84.9

56.1Endgame62.9

104Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	31
teleop	17	90
endgame	9	41
foul	0	0
total	35	162

Result

Final score

35 – 162

Prediction correct · off by 79.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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