Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

289.01 – 282.46

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

262 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 90.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 552.4 ±9.3

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 202.85Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 48.27Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 37.89Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 471.9 ±11.2

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 163.74Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 54.58Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 64.14Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 88, 151, 6201

/ 100 compat

Projected

289 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 88, 151, 6201

Auto

64.6 22%

Teleop

174.4 59%

Endgame

57.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5813, 10912, 2423

/ 100 compat

Projected

282.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5813, 10912, 2423

Auto

57.0 21%

Teleop

141.8 52%

Endgame

74.8 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score289pts

Blue projected score282.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.6
Score range: 240–331
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 391 vs event baseline 232.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

552.4Season APEX471.9

64.6Auto57

174.4Teleop141.8

57.4Endgame74.8

98Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	23
teleop	122	62
endgame	76	19
foul	0	25
total	262	129

Result

Final score

262 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 90.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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