Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103 – 102.71

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.5 ±12.7

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 55.25Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 17.66Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 30.09Rank 22Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.3 ±13.9

5563Phalanx

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 25.69Rank 37Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5491Hard Reset

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 44.25Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 32.77Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 246, 5735, 6731

/ 100 compat

Projected

103 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 246, 5735, 6731

Auto

27.5 27%

Teleop

41.7 41%

Endgame

32.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5563, 5491, 1761

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5563, 5491, 1761

Auto

18.0 20%

Teleop

40.2 44%

Endgame

33.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.67 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103pts

Blue projected score102.7pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.3
Score range: 60–146
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 236.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.5Season APEX237.3

27.5Auto18

41.7Teleop40.2

32Endgame33.6

93Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	15
teleop	26	29
endgame	29	24
foul	10	5
total	97	73

Result

Final score

97 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 17.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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