Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.97 – 193.4

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

252 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 282.7 ±10

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 124.93Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 61.16Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 41.88Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.1 ±12.4

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 131.32Rank 12Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 48.03Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 14.05Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4909, 501, 8023

/ 100 compat

Projected

228 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 501, 8023

Auto

26.5 12%

Teleop

132.9 59%

Endgame

66.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2713, 10912, 9729

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2713, 10912, 9729

Auto

47.3 25%

Teleop

114.7 61%

Endgame

25.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score228pts

Blue projected score193.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.6
Score range: 151–270
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 479 vs event baseline 235.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

282.7Season APEX407.1

26.5Auto47.3

132.9Teleop114.7

66.4Endgame25.8

151Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	15
teleop	140	121
endgame	71	91
foul	5	0
total	252	227

Result

Final score

252 – 227

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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