Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.14 – 281

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 60.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.2 ±12.2

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 51.33Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5563Phalanx

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 30.16Rank 37Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 28.65Rank 22Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 416 ±10.4

151Tough Techs

Season APEX 125.8Event APEX 64Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 98.45Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 118.55Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3958, 5563, 6731

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3958, 5563, 6731

Auto

30.9 28%

Teleop

33.1 30%

Endgame

46.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 151, 2423, 1153

/ 100 compat

Projected

281 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 151, 2423, 1153

Auto

58.1 20%

Teleop

171.1 59%

Endgame

58.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.1pts

Blue projected score281pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -170.9
Score range: 68–323
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 235.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.2Season APEX416

30.9Auto58.1

33.1Teleop171.1

46.6Endgame58.7

128Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	52
teleop	49	75
endgame	26	36
foul	0	15
total	92	178

Result

Final score

92 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 60.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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