Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

287.23 – 434.03

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

329 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 70.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 469.7 ±11.2

8013Boston Lions

Season APEX 126.5Event APEX 110.53Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 20.01Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 156.69Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 518.2 ±10.7

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 102.18Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 252.83Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 79.02Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8013, 1761, 5813

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8013, 1761, 5813

Auto

40.5 14%

Teleop

158.9 57%

Endgame

81.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5459, 125, 4572

/ 100 compat

Projected

434 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5459, 125, 4572

Auto

89.2 21%

Teleop

240.5 56%

Endgame

101.7 24%

Strengths

· 125 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score287.2pts

Blue projected score434pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.8
Score range: 245–476
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 664 vs event baseline 232.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

469.7Season APEX518.2

40.5Auto89.2

158.9Teleop240.5

81.3Endgame101.7

154Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	74
teleop	142	189
endgame	86	72
foul	30	0
total	329	335

Result

Final score

329 – 335

Prediction correct · off by 70.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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