Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.25 – 99.72

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

120 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324.3 ±11

5735Control Freaks

Season APEX 56.8Event APEX 34.11Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 107.36Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 47.78Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.6 ±12.8

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 46.43Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 50.66Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 2.63Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5735, 10973, 2876

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5735, 10973, 2876

Auto

42.8 24%

Teleop

70.0 40%

Endgame

63.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5962, 246, 10156

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5962, 246, 10156

Auto

24.1 25%

Teleop

44.4 46%

Endgame

28.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.19 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189.3pts

Blue projected score99.7pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 72%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 89.5
Score range: 57–232
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 202 vs event baseline 236.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324.3Season APEX313.6

42.8Auto24.1

70Teleop44.4

63.7Endgame28.5

39Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	26
teleop	38	35
endgame	46	21
foul	0	0
total	120	82

Result

Final score

120 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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