Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

248.58 – 157.01

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

299 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 538.7 ±8.8

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 155.81Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 20.6Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3323Potential Energy

Season APEX 122.4Event APEX 72.17Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 341.7 ±12.8

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 79.25Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 28.87Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5491Hard Reset

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 48.89Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 190, 6201, 3323

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 190, 6201, 3323

Auto

47.9 19%

Teleop

129.6 52%

Endgame

70.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8709, 8626, 5491

/ 100 compat

Projected

157 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8709, 8626, 5491

Auto

32.5 21%

Teleop

126.6 83%

Endgame

-7.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score248.6pts

Blue projected score157pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 82%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.6
Score range: 114–292
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 420 vs event baseline 237.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

538.7Season APEX341.7

47.9Auto32.5

129.6Teleop126.6

70.3Endgame-7.1

95Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	35
teleop	154	50
endgame	86	26
foul	5	10
total	299	121

Result

Final score

299 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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