Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

169.69 – 389.31

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

114 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 68.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.4 ±10.5

3958Schrodinger's Cat

Season APEX 77Event APEX 62.8Rank 36Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 58.51Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8023Argonauts

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 48.38Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 506.7 ±10.2

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 135.47Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2084Robots by the C

Season APEX 87.1Event APEX 57.98Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

88TJ²

Season APEX 259.8Event APEX 195.86Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3958, 131, 8023

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3958, 131, 8023

Auto

32.4 20%

Teleop

82.4 50%

Endgame

50.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4909, 2084, 88

/ 100 compat

Projected

389.3 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 2084, 88

Auto

68.1 18%

Teleop

234.0 60%

Endgame

84.7 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.96 · Blue 2.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score169.7pts

Blue projected score389.3pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -219.6
Score range: 127–432
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 422 vs event baseline 238.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.4Season APEX506.7

32.4Auto68.1

82.4Teleop234

50.5Endgame84.7

110Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	92
teleop	27	150
endgame	39	66
foul	10	0
total	114	308

Result

Final score

114 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 68.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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