Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

224.11 – 367.35

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

217 – 578

Prediction correct · off by 108.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.1 ±11.6

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 105.05Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

6731Record Robotics

Season APEX 90.3Event APEX 23.7Rank 22Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 95.36Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 658.1 ±9.5

1277The Robotomies

Season APEX 77.5Event APEX 13.62Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

125NUTRONs

A+

Season APEX 329.7Event APEX 208.44Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 145.29Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4311, 6731, 5459

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4311, 6731, 5459

Auto

35.6 16%

Teleop

134.3 59%

Endgame

58.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1277, 125, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1277, 125, 2877

Auto

67.0 18%

Teleop

234.5 65%

Endgame

61.4 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score224.1pts

Blue projected score367.4pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -143.2
Score range: 182–409
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 795 vs event baseline 233.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.1Season APEX658.1

35.6Auto67

134.3Teleop234.5

58.4Endgame61.4

105Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	112
teleop	107	334
endgame	58	132
foul	0	0
total	217	578

Result

Final score

217 – 578

Prediction correct · off by 108.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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