Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

197.38 – 276.64

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

155 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.5 ±11.7

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 123.75Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2876DevilBotz

Season APEX 112.3Event APEX 52.63Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX 21Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 609.2 ±9.3

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 90.18Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2713Red Hawk Robotics

Season APEX 272.1Event APEX 127.1Rank 12Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 59.36Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1153, 2876, 1761

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1153, 2876, 1761

Auto

29.1 15%

Teleop

103.4 54%

Endgame

58.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 131, 2713, 501

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 131, 2713, 501

Auto

49.3 18%

Teleop

169.1 61%

Endgame

60.7 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 68%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score197.4pts

Blue projected score276.6pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 68%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.3
Score range: 152–322
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 417 vs event baseline 250.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.5Season APEX609.2

29.1Auto49.3

103.4Teleop169.1

58.2Endgame60.7

42Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	30
teleop	86	186
endgame	46	46
foul	0	0
total	155	262

Result

Final score

155 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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