Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

146.1 – 314.97

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 56.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.4 ±13.9

4048Redshift

Season APEX 105.8Event APEX 71.99Rank 27Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

10156Marshy Machines

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 38.14Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10912Dragons

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 35.97Rank 30Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.8 ±11.2

1153Timberwolves

Season APEX 156.7Event APEX 122.73Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5813Morpheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 150.91Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 41.33Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4048, 10156, 10912

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4048, 10156, 10912

Auto

13.7 10%

Teleop

77.3 59%

Endgame

41.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1153, 5813, 246

/ 100 compat

Projected

315 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1153, 5813, 246

Auto

41.6 13%

Teleop

191.2 60%

Endgame

84.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score146.1pts

Blue projected score315pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -168.9
Score range: 104–357
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 235.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.4Season APEX520.8

13.7Auto41.6

77.3Teleop191.2

41Endgame84.8

64Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	64
teleop	11	187
endgame	6	67
foul	5	0
total	37	318

Result

Final score

37 – 318

Prediction correct · off by 56.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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