Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.58 – 183.41

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

149 – 195

Prediction missed · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.2 ±11.2

5491Hard Reset

Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 79.71Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2423The KwarQs

Season APEX 133.5Event APEX 102.11Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6201The Highlanders

Season APEX 166.8Event APEX 19.76Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.3 ±11.7

10973Sea Raiders

Season APEX 155.2Event APEX 120.03Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

501The PowerKnights

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 54.31Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9729Knights

Season APEX 61.3Event APEX 9.07Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5491, 2423, 6201

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5491, 2423, 6201

Auto

40.9 21%

Teleop

108.3 54%

Endgame

49.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10973, 501, 9729

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10973, 501, 9729

Auto

32.8 19%

Teleop

91.2 53%

Endgame

47.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score201.6pts

Blue projected score183.4pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.2
Score range: 140–245
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 237.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.2Season APEX285.3

40.9Auto32.8

108.3Teleop91.2

49.6Endgame47.3

61Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	31
teleop	81	95
endgame	46	59
foul	0	10
total	149	195

Result

Final score

149 – 195

Prediction missed · off by 32.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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