Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

318.97 – 72.26

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

188 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 137.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.4 ±10.8

8709Pathfinder Tech

Season APEX 146Event APEX 102.41Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 150.33Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5563Phalanx

Season APEX 80.9Event APEX 66.23Rank 37Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299.2 ±12.2

4572Barlow Robotics

Season APEX 90.4Event APEX 68.47Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1761STEAMpunk Tigers

Season APEX 78.5Event APEX -7.7Rank 35Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5962perSEVERE

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 11.49Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8709, 190, 5563

/ 100 compat

Projected

319 pts

~2.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8709, 190, 5563

Auto

53.3 17%

Teleop

191.7 60%

Endgame

73.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4572, 1761, 5962

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4572, 1761, 5962

Auto

24.0 36%

Teleop

6.9 10%

Endgame

36.1 54%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.77 · Blue 0.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score319pts

Blue projected score72.3pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 246.7
Score range: 29–362
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 238.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.4Season APEX299.2

53.3Auto24

191.7Teleop6.9

73.1Endgame36.1

110Consistency176

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	38
teleop	98	102
endgame	24	67
foul	0	10
total	188	217

Result

Final score

188 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 137.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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