Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

228.02 – 185.06

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

191 – 382

Prediction missed · off by 117 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 366.9 ±12.8

246Lobstah Bots

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 66.09Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8626Cyber Sailors

Season APEX 117.8Event APEX 64.45Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4311Swampscott Currents

Season APEX 149.7Event APEX 97.48Rank 9Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.2 ±9.5

4909Bionics

Season APEX 159.8Event APEX 81.07Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5459Ipswich TIGERS

Season APEX 98.1Event APEX 50.86Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 53.13Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 246, 8626, 4311

/ 100 compat

Projected

228 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 246, 8626, 4311

Auto

58.1 25%

Teleop

145.0 63%

Endgame

27.7 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4909, 5459, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4909, 5459, 131

Auto

26.2 14%

Teleop

109.1 57%

Endgame

56.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score228pts

Blue projected score185.1pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample180alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43
Score range: 143–270
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 573 vs event baseline 234.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

366.9Season APEX526.2

58.1Auto26.2

145Teleop109.1

27.7Endgame56.3

114Consistency170

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	77
teleop	95	235
endgame	38	70
foul	5	0
total	191	382

Result

Final score

191 – 382

Prediction missed · off by 117 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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